The Pandemic won't stop the Oscars
It has been the year of closed cinemas and cancelled festivals, of masked filming and endlessly postponed blockbusters. A virus has succeeded where television and digital platforms failed, yet cinema resists and comes back to life. Nomadland's call to resist against a crisis makes it a favourite in an edition with fewer stars than in other years, but which displays diversity and social engagement. Racialised actors hope to make history, Chloé Zhao to end with discrimination against female directors and 'Minari' could make Korean the language of the Academy for second year running. And what about David Fincher's 'Mank', which only a couple of months ago was everybody's favourite? Find out on 25 April. Come in, play and win.
Xavi Serra
Best Picture
ARA's tip Since the Golden Globes, 'Nomadland' has reaffirmed its condition as front-runner for the Oscars in every award ceremony. Its win at the decisive Producers Guild Film Awards and the BAFTAs were only the latest examples. In addition, the preferential voting system also plays in its favour, as it has provided surprises lately rewarding films that have created wide consensus rather than those that have polarised the public, as is the case of its main rival, 'Promising Young Woman'. However, a film that has been popular with viewers and critics alike, such as 'Minari', has a greater chance of causing an upset and leading to a second straight win for a Korean-speaking film.
I vote for...
ARA Readers
Sound of Metal
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Best Director
ARA's tip Nomadland' dicrector Chloé Zhao is by far the bookies' favourite for best director. It would be the second time a woman wins this prize in 93 editions - a chance the Academy is unlikely to let pass.
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ARA Readers
Thomas Vinterberg Another round
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David Fincher Mank
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Lee Isaac Chung Minari
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Chloé Zhao Nomadland
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Emerald Fennell Promising Young Woman
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Best Actor
ARA's tip Heath Ledger was the last actor to win a posthumous Oscar for ' The Dark Knight'. The next will, in all likelihood, be Chadwick Boseman, whose early death shocked Hollywood. He is brilliant in his portrayal of trumpetist furious with the injusted of a crooked system.
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ARA Readers
Riz Ahmed Sound of Metal
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Anthony Hopkins The Father
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Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Gary Oldman Mank
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Steven Yeun Minari
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Best Actress
ARA's tip This category seems a two-horse race between Frances McDormand in 'Nomadland' and Carey Mulligan in 'Promising Young Woman'. However, the Screen Actors Guild award to Viola Davis for 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' opens up the race. The fact that Davis is the only racialised of the three actress may also help her chances.
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ARA Readers
Viola Davis Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Andra Day The United States vs. Billie Holiday
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Vanessa Kirby Pieces of a Woman
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Frances McDormand Nomadland
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Carey Mulligan Promising Young Woman
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Best Supporting Actor
ARA's tip Daniel Kaluuya is the great favourite to win the prize to best supporting actor, partly thanks to the fact that he is running in this category instead of best actor, which would seem better suited to his role in 'Judas and the Black Messiah'. However, this way he is running against Boseman, who seems invincible,
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ARA Readers
Sacha Baron Cohen The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Daniel Kaluuya Judas and the Black Messiah
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Leslie Odom Jr. One Night in Miami...
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Paul Raci Sound of Metal
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Lakeith Stanfield Judas and the Black Messiah
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Best Supporting Actress
ARA's tip This is the hardest category to predict this year. Despite being also nominated for the Razzies, Glenn Close is the favourite, as one the five actresses with the most nominations (8) in the Oscars' History, However, she is also the only candidate not to have won. Her bad run gives hopes to Olivia Colman, who beat Close two years ago, Amanda Seyfried and veteran Korean actress Youn Yuh-jung, winner of the Screen Actors Guild award.
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ARA Readers
Maria Bakalova Borat subsequent moviefilm
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Glenn Close Hillbilly Elegy
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Olivia Colman The Father
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Amanda Seyfried Mank
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Youn Yuh-jung Minari
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Best Original Screenplay
ARA's tip The feminist rereading of revenge drama 'Promising Young Woman' is the front-runner, especially after winning in the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTAs. Her main contender is Aaron Sorkin with 'The trial of the Chicago 7'.
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ARA Readers
Judas and the Black Messiah
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Minari
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Promising Young Woman
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Sound of Metal
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The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Best Adapted Screenplay
ARA's tip The 'Borat' sequel's win in the Writers Guild Award caused an upset; however, both 'Nomadland' and 'The father' were excluded due to technicalities. Thus, Chloé Zhao is the big favourite to win in the Oscars with 'Nomadland'.
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ARA Readers
Borat subsequent moviefilm
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The Father
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Nomadland
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One Night in Miami...
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The White Tiger
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Best International Feature Film
ARA's tip Last year, it was clear 'Parasites' would win the Oscars' international prize. This year everything points to a clear victory for 'Another Round', whose director Thomas Vinterberg is also nominated. If so, Vinterberg will soon be toasting to his first Oscar.
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ARA Readers
Another Round Thomas Vinterberg (Denmark)
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Better days Derek Tsang (Hong Kong)
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Collective Alexander Nanau (Romania)
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The man who sold his skin Kaouther Ben Hania (Tunisia)
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Quo vadis, Aida? Jasmila Zbanic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
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Best Documentary Feature
ARA's tip The competition for best documentary has been narrowed down to two very different options: heartrending 'Time'. about a woman who has spent 21 years fighting for her husband, locked up for a crime they both committed, and the disconcerting 'My octopus teacher' by Netflix, which narrates the strange connexion between the director and an octopues in the underwater kelp forest where it lives.
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ARA Readers
Collective
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Crip Camp
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The Mole Agent
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My Octopus Teacher
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Time
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Best Animated Feature Film
ARA's tip One of the biggest surprises in this year's Oscars would be if 'Soul' did not win best animated film. There is even another Pixar film nominated - 'Onward' - but 'Soul' is one of those films loved by critics and public alike which is destined to win award ceremonies.
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ARA Readers
Onward
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Over the Moon
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A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
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Soul
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Wolfwalkers
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Best Cinematography
ARA's tip Nomadland's naturalist photography is up against Mank's back and white hommage to classical Hollywood. However, the Academy prefers nominating films in black and white rather than giving them awards: of six nominations in the last eight years, only Roma won. This is the smart money is on Nomadland's Western landscapes.
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ARA Readers
Judas and the Black Messiah
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Mank
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News of the World
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Nomadland
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The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Best Film Editing
ARA's tip The winner of the Best Picture award usually also wins Best Film Editing if it is nominated. This would point once again to 'Nomadland', editer by director Chloé Zhao . However, 'Sound of Metal' has a much more expressive and technically ambitious editing, which makes it much more deserving of an award than 'Nomadland''s flat classicism. Could this be one of the night's surprises? We believe so.
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ARA Readers
The Father
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Nomadland
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Promising Young Woman
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Sound of Metal
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The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Best Original Score
ARA's tip Rather than who will win, the question is what film will they win with. Will Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross win their second Oscar for Soul's electronic passages or for Mank's classic symphonism? The Pixar film seems the front runner, with Jon Batiste adding the jazz rhythms.
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ARA Readers
Da 5 Bloods
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Mank
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Minari
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News of the World
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Soul
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Best Original Song
ARA's tip Without big names such as Lady Gaga or Elton John to polarise the vote, the bookies' favourite is Leslie Odom Jr. from 'One Night in Miami' for his hommage to Sam Cooke, 'Speak now'. Its rival is 'Io sì (Seen)', sung in Italian by Laura Pausini and written by Oscar veteran Diana Warren, who has been nominated 12 times but has never one. Maybe this time.
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ARA Readers
Fight for you Judas and the Black Messiah
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Hear my voice The Trial of the Chicago 7
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Husavik Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
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lo sì (seen) The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
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Speak now One Night in Miami...
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Best Costume Design
ARA's tip This category is usually won by costume dramas with actresses in girdles such as Austen adaptation 'Emma', as long as they are also nominated in important categories. In this case, though, it seems the favourites are 'Mank' and 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'.
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ARA Readers
Emma
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Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Mank
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Mulan
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Pinocchio
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Best Production Design
ARA's tip David Fincher's obsessive perfectionism in Mank's reconstructions of 1930s Hollywood seems on track to win this Oscar. The Academy likes to give awards to nostalgic visions of Los Angeles, as was seen last year with 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood'
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ARA Readers
The Father
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Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Mank
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News of the World
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Tenet
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Best Visual Effects
ARA's tip Tenet' is the rival to beat in this race, but 'The Midnight Sky' also has many fans. However, the fact that Christopher Nolan's film was premiered in cinemas amidst the pandemic and not on Netfliz gives it greater chances of success in a year with hardly any blockbusters.
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ARA Readers
The Midnight Sky
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Love and Monsters
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Mulan
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The One And Only Ivan
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Tenet
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
ARA's tip Viola Davis's make-up in 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' might seem over the top but it does its job of defining the character perfectly. "A mask to intimidate whoever goes against her", were María Adell's words in her review for ARA. She is the big favourite to win the Oscar.
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ARA Readers
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
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Emma
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Mank
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Hillbilly Elegy
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Pinocchio
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Best Sound
ARA's tip The joy of seeing the two sound categories finally reunited comes with an obvious choice for the Oscar. 'Sound of metal' is a film that uses sound carefully as it explains the drama of losing one's hearing. There is very little doubt it will win.
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ARA Readers
Greyhound
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Mank
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News of the World
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Soul
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Sound of Metal
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Best Live Action Short Film
ARA's tip It would seem having Oscar Isaac as lead would make prison drama 'The letter room' a favourite, yet it is the social awareness of 'Two distant strangers', inspired in the protests over the death of George Floyd, which is the favourite, ahead of 'Feeling through', about an emotive bond developed between a black teenager and a blind and deaf man during a night in New York.
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ARA Readers
Feeling through
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The letter room
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The present
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Two distant strangers
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White eye
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Best Documentary Short Subject
ARA's tip A love song for Latasha' is dedicated to Latasha Harlingen, a 15-year-old girl murdered in 1991, one of the events that triggered the racial riots in that year. The current social atmosphere in the US makes the short a favourtie, appealing to voters' social awareness.
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ARA Readers
Colette
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A concerto is a conversation
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Do not split
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Hunger ward
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A love song for Latasha
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Best Animated Short Film
ARA's tip Neither Pixar nor Disney are this year's frontrunner: Netflix is the bookies' favourite to win its first Oscar in the category with 'If anything happens I love you', about mourning parents visited by their dead daughter's shadow, who was murdered in a school shooting. Original technique, social critique and goosebumps all around make it a great candidate for the award.
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ARA Readers
Burrow
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Genius loci
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If anything happens I love you
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Opera
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Yes-people
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You may change your guesses until the beginning of the awards ceremony, on April 26 at 1.30 am.
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